Google users believe BTC is extinct – five Bitcoin facts to know now

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Google users believe BTC is extinct – five Bitcoin facts to know now

Google users believe BTC is extinct – five Bitcoin facts to know now
Source: CoinTelegraph
1656322075 27 Jun / 09:27

Bitcoin (BTC) begins the week over $20,000 but is headed for a new negative record as a critical support level remains unattainable. After a quiet weekend highlighted by a short jump towards $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the price at which CME futures markets closed on Friday.

A "round trip" enables traders to start where they left off after last week's Wall Street trading session, but what may the upcoming days hold?

The current environment is unfavorable for the ordinary holder due to persistent macro risks and bearish inclinations. Despite some reprieve this week, cryptocurrency markets continue to endure the weight of cold feet, which have increasingly characterized the macro mood throughout 2022.

As the June monthly comparative approaches, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what might be its worst monthly performance since the beginning of 2018.

Cointelegraph examines five possible market triggers for the upcoming week as inflation rages and cryptocurrencies battle to find their ground.

This week, Bitcoin traders have exhibited a broad sense of resignation, which might be described as “apathetic.”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that, even though the weekend spared the ordinary holder any unpleasant surprises, BTC/USD is still far from where anyone wants it to be, even in a bear market.

The “severe dread” component of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly in control, as the 200-week moving average (WMA) is no longer within reach.

“BTC will capitulate in the next six months & hit cycle bottom (anywhere between $14-21k), then chop around in $28-40k in most of 2023 and be at ~$40k again by next halving,” Venturefounder, a contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, stated as part of a June 27 Twitter post.

The thesis of Venturefounder is symbolic of a more extensive opinion that Bitcoin’s bottom has not yet been reached and that any relief moves are only diversions on the way to lower levels that drain cash from market novices and weak hands.

The first week of July will see the next significant bout of volatility across cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

Crypto Tony, a well-known trader, said that “not much has occurred overnight on Bitcoin” and that he anticipates a dull week owing to the absence of triggers.

Due to forthcoming events, July will be a more eventful month for market volatility.

According to Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives firm BitMEX, the first week of the following month is when the macro stars will again align to punish hodlers.

In an early June blog article, he identified the United States Federal Reserve’s disproportionate rate rise and balance sheet reduction as the primary catalyst for a risk asset nightmare.

“By June 30 (second quarter-end), the Fed will have enacted a 75bps rate hike and begun shrinking its balance sheet. July 4 falls on a Monday and is a federal and banking holiday. This is the perfect setup for yet another mega crypto dump,” Hayes cautioned.

Thus, a “wild trip to the downside” might be imminent.

As reported by Cointelegraph, the general agreement for a genuine price bottom is between $14,000 and $16,000, although $11,000 has also appeared, representing an 84.5 percent decline from Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.

While some panic-sell BTC, analysts are attempting to demonstrate that the magnitude of the Bitcoin bear market thus far is not exceptional.

Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in a recent research paper titled “A Bear of Historic Proportions,” urged caution regarding BTC prices below $20,000.

“Bear market lows have historically been established with BTC drawdowns of -75% to -84% from the ATH, and taking a duration of 260-days in 2019-20, to 410-days in 2015,” the report stated.

“With the current drawdown reaching -73.3% below the Nov-2021 ATH, and taking a duration between 227-days and 435-days, this bear market is now firmly within historical norms and magnitude.”

The current atmosphere is distinguished not by Bitcoin but by investors’ reactions to price fluctuations.

Despite losses maintaining historical averages, the number of BTC sold at a loss surpassed all prior records.

“The recent price collapse through to the $20k region was punctuated with the largest daily USD denominated realized loss in history,” Glassnode said.

“Investors collectively locked in a loss of -$4.234B in a single day, which is a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3.457B set in mid-2021.”

The losses are the third-largest in Bitcoin’s history, measured in BTC.

Depending on one’s point of view, Bitcoin’s situation is either problematic or “interesting,” with three days remaining until the June monthly closing.

BTC/USD stays below a critical trendline, sustaining it at prior macro lows as the bear market continues. The 200-week moving average (WMA) value, which has never declined, is at $22,430.

In past down markets, Bitcoin has maintained the 200WMA as support while wicking below it to establish floor values, as reported by Cointelegraph.

This time, however, the level is becoming resistant as repeated attempts by bulls to adhere to historical standards fail. As a result, the conclusion of the month might be “interesting,” according to the developer of the Stock-to-Flow pricing model, PlanB, as it would be the very first monthly closing below the 200WMA.

A supplementary chart released on June 26 depicts Bitcoin’s connection to the 200WMA vs. the distance from its block halving events. The latter outlines the four-year cycles that comprise the previously mentioned bear market concepts.

In the meantime, Checkmate, the primary on-chain analyst at Glassnode, identified more unexpected negative characteristics now influencing the BTC price.

In addition to being below the 200WMA, he observes that BTC/USD is trading below its realized price and deep into the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple indicators.

According to a recent post by Cointelegraph, the Mayer Multiple indicates the price’s distance from its 200-day moving average and, thus, the likelihood that a purchase at a given level will provide asymmetrical returns.

“Such events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate noted in a tweet.

Until recently, altcoins had more losses than Bitcoin due to numerous prominent projects, including Terra and Celsius.

Now, though, the situation is reversing; Bitcoin’s supremacy has changed after soaring this year, prompting speculation that altcoins may be the way to go shortly.

“Bitcoin dominance is moving down strongly, and the advantage lies with altcoins right now,” according to the famous Twitter account BTCfuel.

After reaching an 11-month high of 48.36 percent on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market capitalization decreased to 43.46 percent at the time of writing, a notable change in less than three weeks.

According to veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin’s relative strength relative to altcoins may have greater relevance for bulls than meets the eye.

Regarding the market cap dominance statistics, he asserted, “This graph might be the major “tell.”

“A decisive close back above 50% would be a huge positive.”

Others are sure that despite the most recent reversal, it is not cryptocurrencies’ moment to shine in any significant future.

According to Venturefounder, investors should continue to keep Bitcoin.

“Normal bear market narrative altcoins bleed more heavily Bitcoin,” trading suite Decentrader added in separate comments on the latest dominance action.

“However, for the last two weeks, altcoins (generally) have outperformed. So either: ‘This time is different’ or ‘This won’t last.’ Dominance remains in the 40-48% range.”

Bitcoin is more prevalent among general Internet users than ever in the past year, but is this a cause for celebration?

However, at that time, as it is today, the BTC price movement was aiming for long-term lows rather than highs, showing that adverse developments are what attract mainstream attention.

Regarding search interest, last November’s all-time peak appears to be a mere blip by contrast.

As a result, search volume for keywords such as “Bitcoin is dead” has increased, which social media users have interpreted as a probable indication that the market is in a “capitulation” phase.

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