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The MVRV-Z Score is a tried-and-true bottom signal, but it has not yet returned to the bottom, a market expert cautions.
One of the most reliable market indicators indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) must drop further before establishing a macro bottom.
Bitcoin's MVRV-Z Score is almost, but not quite, suggesting a price reversal, according to data from sources such as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.
Amid continued discussion as to whether or when BTC/USD will surpass its current macro lows of $17,600, new data indicate that the market might easily fall deeper.
According to Filbfilb, co-founder of the trading platform DecenTrader, the MVRV-Z Score is now in its characteristic green zone. Still, it has not yet reached the threshold that has historically preceded price bottoms.
MVRV-Z assesses how high or low the current Bitcoin spot price is relative to its “fair value.”
It combines market capitalization and realized price data with standard deviation to develop one of the most accurate peaks and bottom prediction tools for Bitcoin.
LookIntoBitcoin says that MVRV-Z has captured every macro top and bottom on BTC/USD with an accuracy of two weeks during its career.
The last time the measure fell below its green zone was in March 2020, but more downward pressure would produce comparable performance.
“This chart is *the one* for me,” Filbfilb remarked on the most recent readings:
“We normally bottom when MC < realized cap by around 30% - currently $15.6k. This was when macro times were relatively good; anything above here is a risk that it's different this time IMO." $15,600 would be consistent with current projections of Bitcoin's lowest price. Related: Bitcoin will see a "long bear market," claims a trader with a price of $19,000 In a weekend post to Twitter followers, the prominent account CryptoBullet identified this region as one of many crucial support zones to monitor. They confirmed that $16,000 corresponds to the average divergence from Bitcoin's 50-month moving average. Bitcoin's relative strength indicator, or RSI, is at an all-time low, further indicating the oversold condition of a market below its last halving cycle's top of roughly $20,000.